Why Avatar 2 Will Crush at Box Office

James Cameron, as we all know, is in the process of releasing multiple sequels to Avatar. The first sequel – Avatar 2 – is set to release in 2021 (but let’s be real, it’s probably gonna be delayed). And it’s impending release has created a lot of anticipation – particularly as to whether or not it will be successful at box office – even more so than whether the movie is going to be good.

Many argue that it’ll be underwhelming at box office – they bring how it’s predecessor, Avatar, despite being the biggest grossing movie of all time, did not really get much widespread critical claim, and that more importantly, it lacked many memorable moments and it seemed to lack any permanence in pop culture. Additionally, despite its unique visuals, its story was not particularly unique or amazingly well written. Many considered it a retread of Pocahontas, FernGully, Dances With Wolves, and the like.

However valid these arguments may be (and they are), they won’t prevent Avatar 2 from absolutely crushing it at box office when it comes out. The reasons? Well to lay them out at once, they are: a) novelty, and b) competition (or lack thereof).

Basically, for point a, novelty is a huge factor in why many movies have gotten successful. The first Star Wars movie was very novel for its time with its groundbreaking special effects that legitimized and pushed to the forefront science fantasy films in box office. No movie had been constructed as perfectly as it had. Jurassic Park was novel with its groundbreaking special effects that brought a concept that most people could only dream of in a movie, to life. And obviously, the first Avatar movie was novel, in its – again – groundbreaking visuals and use of 3-D to create an immersive theater experience that had never been accomplished before.

Now I know what you’re thinking: How does that apply to Avatar 2? Where’s its novelty?

Simple. The long wait between it and the first one.

Yes. Think about two movies; Jurassic World, and Star Wars The Force Awakens. Both of them had novelty despite being sequels. Why? Because they of the long gap. Both movies came out over 10 years after their predecessors, and as a result, their return created mass hype. And more importantly, the same way Avatar 1 wasn’t “loved”, was the same way Jurassic Park 3 and Star Wars Revenge of the Sith weren’t loved either. In fact, their were both clowned upon. But time heals. a 10 year wait essentially made it all a soft reboot.

So Avatar 2 is an a similar spot. Avatar’s reception was actually better than those 2 movies. And now, a long 11 year wait is going to make people think of how amazing of an experience in theaters Avatar 1 was, and this 11 year wait will make them interested because it will feel novel again. It will feel new again. There’s nothing else like it, blue-space aliens and all. And that leads into the next point.

Competition for Avatar 2 – by the time it comes out, will be in its favor. By then, the Star Wars Sequel Trilogy would have ended – be looked back on with lukewarm reception, given its underwhelming merchandising sales. The Marvel cinematic universe and DC CU will still be trucking along – and that’s actually a good thing for Avatar 2. Avatar 2 will feel unique. It will be the perfect counter programming to those movies. Lastly, we are in an age of reboots, soft reboots, and sequels. Within the next 5 years alone, we’re getting Zootopia 2, Frozen 2, a bunch of Marvel stuff, Jurassic World 2 – notice a trend? All of these are franchises that they are pumping out sequels to like a machine. I’m not saying that this will hurt their box office – as after all, many still go and watch them (although, Toy Story 4 failing to outgross it’s 10 year old predecessor and Star Wars having a bomb with Solo beg to differ). But the saturation of these franchise will only help Avatar even more, as it will stick out and look like more of a unique, one-of-a-kind experience.

Lastly, never doubt James Cameron. This man, in 1991, had one of the biggest budgets ever for the sequel to a niche but beloved action movie and turned it into a $500 million dollar movie – in 1991 (Terminator 2). This man, in 1997, had the biggest budget EVERY with $200 million dollars for a movie that could best be described as Romeo and Juliet on a ship. Everyone thought it would bomb. What happened? It became the biggest grossing movie of all time by far.

And then he did it again with Avatar.

Each time, all with groundbreaking visuals, excellent marketing, and other business savvy design choices. And Jim is promising that Avatar 2’s visuals will stun all – and given his track record, you should believe it. So if there’s a final reason to believe Avatar 2 will crush it, it should be because of James Cameron.